Alerts
Runner Profile · Daily
Daily breaks matching the ONE measured combination that selects multi-day runners: a DEEP confirming close (top magnitude tercile) fired WITH the 40-day trend. Measured (2y, 84 such breaks): median net +69 pips two windows out, 67% still positive, 40% still holding a full box of gain — versus 26% baseline, while shallow counter-trend daily breaks are net-negative. Depth is a gradient, not a cliff (near-misses at 0.20–0.26×box tested nearly as strong and land here with an amber chip); ALIGNMENT is the rigid rule — deep counter-trend breaks tested −40p. The RUNNER JOURNEY strip tracks the lifecycle in baskets: amber DEVELOPING (live, resets at the close) → green CONFIRMED (the tag printed; ledger scoring) → red PULLING BACK (the tested ladder-entry moment, awaiting reconfirmation or a trend-change death). Stories ride until INVALIDATION — a close through the opposite edge — and the ledger scores them the whole way. Gold and silver render too, as SHAPE matches: same geometric definitions, facts and levels only — fiat odds are never attached to a metal (their session cells are metal-measured). Tendency, not a promise.
Trend Breaks · 4H & Daily
The MAIN trend died: a completed close through the validated trend structure's last floor or ceiling, where the staircase that carried the move had ≥3 confirmed pivots — the Trend overlay's own definition. Measured (2y, 28 fiat pairs): a REGIME MARKER, not an entry. 4H deaths (n=505) are a coin flip — 46% continue, and a new opposite staircase validates first only 52% vs the old trend re-validating 43% (~15 bars either way). DAILY deaths (n=60) actively snap back: median −75 pips against the break by 26 bars, only 28% keep going, and a true reversal confirms just 33% of the time — big trends die slowly, and the first break is usually retraced. Use a row here to pull risk on positions riding the old trend, and read 4H deaths against a still-intact Daily trend as counter-trend swings, not turns.
Coil Breaks · 4H & Daily
Confirmed = a completed close beyond a scanner box edge. Measured on fiat pairs: break direction is a coin flip, ~2/3 close back inside within a window, and 94–95% retest the broken edge — a break is a level-map event, not a direction call. ⚡ intrabar = live price ≥30% of box height beyond an edge before the bar closes (48–72% close through same bar) — fast but provisional.
Fade Watch · 4H
Live price entered an edge fifth of a HELD 4H box ≥40 pips — the only edge-fade slice that backtested non-negative (1h and Daily fades tested negative and are never alerted). Each row prints the backtested ladder: entry at the edge, add-on 0.25×box beyond it (the false-break leg — filled 42% of trades and improved EV), one shared stop 0.5×box beyond, target mid-box. Measured: 51% win, ~+7 pips per setup. Exit discipline the numbers assume: a completed close beyond the edge against you = exit at that close (the hard stop is spike insurance; only 11% ever reached it), and take the FULL profit at mid-box — trailing tested negative (−0.08R): edge-to-mid is mean reversion, not a trend. Both legs filled = double risk at the stop. A watch flag for discretion, not a signal.
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